I think we have problem of a very serious liquidity crisis. And it could happen during next few hours.
Look at liquidity distribution on Uniswap right now:
Those LP on the left side of current tick have their positions 100% in GIV, earning no Uniswap fees and no GIV rewards.
In order to get into current range, they need to swap those GIV into ETH, rather sooner than latter. Problem is the liquidity on the right side is comparatively very thin and unable to absorb this (and also will end up 100% in GIV).
There’s a chance that someone would just take those GIVs and stake on Balancer or just as pure GIV, but I’m pretty sure the “whales”:
- represent speculative capital
- came for 4 digit, not 3 digit rewards
- perhaps bought/had some GIV to initiate their positions but ended up with much more GIV, and now feel too exposed to GIV
- expect other to sell as well
This can cause an avalanche. Some of those who bought those GIV would be selling them again into thinner and thinner liquidity.
I estimate that 700K GIV or more can be sold in the next 12hrs.
Meanwhile we have low liquidity on Uniswap, Balancer pool is only 20% in ETH and it’s even smaller, and while there’s quite substantial liquidity on Gnosis chain, I estimate immediately available buy side liquidity at 590 ETH. This is not concentrated liquidity, so the effect of selling even 200-300K GIV would be quite epic. I don’t want to spread fear, but I wouldn’t be surprise if I’d wake up tomorrow and see GIV price 30-40% lower than today.
What can be done?
Short term we can announce possibility of earning high APR on “good quality” token and draw some liquidity (most of newcomers would have to buy some GIV). This can be done on Reddit, it would be great if some highly reputable member of Giveth team post it
But, since switching off the Uniswap pool is voted in, at the end of the week we could face even bigger crisis, with more GIV available for dump and zero liquidity on Uniswap. I’d recommend reconsidering switching off Uniswap pool and instead plan for some migration: gradually building another liquidity pool while decreasing amount of the rewards for Uniswap.